Source: La Nación
Our classic analitic lens focus on the electoral results of the City and the province of Buenos Aires, but yesterday in Argentina many other things happened.
The population slapped the Government in different ways throughout the whole country. Certainly, the Buenos Aires result was the most surprising, but it was not the only one. The color change of the electoral map (see image) is surprising. The magnitude of Peronism's defeat has poor precedents. The ruling party lost in unexpected provinces and, even in the districts in which it won, the differences were not significant.
The President had stood firm in the face of internal demands - which basically called for a change in men and policies - and raised the election in plebiscitary terms. The sounding surprising slap did not stun the governing cast who, at around eleven o'clock, appeared united and aligned in acknowledging the defeat, and who worked until late at night to process the reaction. They spoke of policies and measures favorable to production, such as the announcement of today's “Compre Nacional”; but there were no definitions on the cabinet. The President resists on yielding the shaking of the tree of functionaries who do not work.
This Newsletter has been highlighting for the past months some government voices that have had believe in the end of the social assistance paradigm, whereas demanding a focus on working on seriously improving and increasing the economic activity. "Less plans and more work," have expressed the Buenos Aires province Social Development Minister and the brand-new national Minister, Andrés Larroque and Juan Zavaleta, respectively, as well as the leaders of the social movements.
Those few political figures among the ruling party that still think that money can continue to be printed to distribute little pieces of paper with no value at all, are now a minority. "No one says s, but the country must adjust its fiscal accounts," had stated the Santiago del Estero Governor, Gerardo Zamora, one of the few winners yesterday, in the interview he gave to the main newspaper of his province in the face of the electoral act (see "The Phrase" from the previous edition).
There is no margin for nonsenses. Facts are needed to raise hope if an attempt is made to reverse a result that can even result in a parliamentary setback on November. Perhaps a change of names in the economic cabinet or an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a different solution to the problems of the economy or all this together.
The opposition, instead, must prepare to maintain its flow of votes and even attract the voters of those ballots that lost, as well as the two million fewer citizens that didn’t cast their votes, or those parties that didn’t make it to the PASO bottom line, without the contraption of the duplication of lists (would the Frente de Todos have had a better performance if they had presented two lists?).
Sunday night's sensationalist festivities showed improvisation, and repetitive speeches. There was no other gesture than to be get in first in public opinion to avoid the dispersion of the effect of the triumph. But it seems that the opposition must repower its campaign to prevent those four or five million voters from reversing yesterday's victory. +)
The sentence
“The moderation, stupid!”
Headline of Carlos Fara´s column in Perfil
The character
The choice of the character of the week always requires some creativity. We could have picked Horacio R. Larreta, given his sound triumph on his three assets: Buenos Aires City, Buenos Aires province and Córdoba. But it would be necessary to see if María Eugenia Vidal can successfully manage to capitalize her rivals’ votes in the general elections, since Ricardo López Murphy in the fourth place of her ballot could drain his liberal and conservative voters who may find peace in the list headed by Javier Milei and Victoria Villarruel. The hosts Diego Santilli and Facundo Manes do not seem to get along much either, although they do not seem to have any other destiny; the Buenos Aires province electoral challenge will be the capture of new votes, either from parties that were left out of the competition or from those citizens that did not cast their votes on Sunday. Although Larreta seems to have established himself as the referent in his support, he has yet to work hard on bringing on his coalition partners, the “radicales.”
The only clue as per the upcoming 2023 presidential election seems to be Tucumán province. Governor Juan Manzur, a natural reference for Governors, has comfortably won his province and doubled his internal adversary, ViceGovernor Jaldo. Since Axel Kicillof has been ruled out as a candidate to succeed Fernández and as only Sergio Massa could be the referent of the government Triumvirate, Manzur could also come to represent the mayors who were relegated at the time of the candidacies and the formally unionized workers. There is no other figure within Peronism other than Manzur that can brag, at least until PASO, about such a result.
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