Emergentes (English version)

 EMERGENTS

The recent electoral definitions regarding the withdrawal of candidatures of President of PRO Party Patricia Bullrich and Coalición Cívica’s leader Elisa “Lilita” Carrio among the opposition, start to shape a clearer picture of how negotiations are going within Cambiemos, with Major Rodriguez Larreta taking the lead. He is working to clear the path for former Governor Maria Eugenia Vidal’s candidature in the City of Buenos Aires, which is almost settled. But the unexpected rising of former Minister of Treasury Ricardo Lopez Murphy as candidate to run in a primary election against Vidal was definitely out of Larreta’s scope, beyond all the political agreements that Larreta holds with the Radical Party in the City to keep them still. And might now represent a real obstacle to Larreta’s bet on Vidal to achieve a resounding triumph, bearing in mind the 2023 presidential election. Why would Lopez Murphy be a threat? Well, he actually represents both conservatism (his political experience can acknowledge it) and liberalism, for older voters and for the youth respectively. And may also be an attractive option for some of Patricia Bullrich’s voters, who was his partner in the 2003 election when he ran for President. This unexpected scenario for Larreta will drive him to keep a close eye on the development of the PASO to secure Vidal’s –and his– victory.

The political scenario in the City is not far from what can happen in Buenos Aires Province. If radical Facundo Manes faces the PRO ballot in partnership with the anti-kirchnerista peronists, they may also become a hazard to PRO’s bet, who is Diego Santilli, vice Major of Buenos Aires City. Joaquin de la Torre, former Governor of San Miguel county in the province, who is one of this anti-kirchnerista peronists, has cleverly managed to explain this panorama in football terms during an interview for La Nación newspaper this weekend: he said that given this picture, looks like the opposition will play the most difficult match with substitute players, whereas the easiest match (i.e. the City) will be played with the starting, best players. 

Therefore, in both districts the attractive component is the rising of this kind of neoradicalismo, a new version of the Radical Party, who, in partnership with a third party, can lead to a surprising performance.

Meanwhile, the ruling coalition keeps the secrecy of their negotiations, a style featuring Cristina Kirchner when it comes to electoral issues. But when analyzing the different potential scenarios within the ruling party, we can reach some early conclusions. If it happened that any Ministers, or even Chief of Cabinet Santiago Cafiero, were to run, it could represent an opportunity to make changes in cabinet, without getting them to quit if they were not to work as expected in the eyes of Cristina Kirchner. Another point to highlight is the emergence of Peronist leaders achieving resounding triumphs, such could be the case of some Governors, as Sergio Uñac of San Juan Province. Similarly, Sergio Massa is also figuring out the best way to take a part in this election, and so is Governor Kicillof, with Cristina Kirchner’s approval.

So far, the trend might be the mentioned phenomenon of emerging centrist third parties that can define the fate of this election, far from the ends represented by Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri, which would be a gleam of hope to Argentinians that keep dreaming with a pacific and collective action to solve the country’s biggest challenges.