Souvenir (english version)

Argentina's government's changing position towards Nicaragua’s political situation, by calling back its Ambassador in Managua to inquire about Ortega’s regime, reveals the outcome of Sergio Massa’s recent trip to the United States. The President of the Chamber of Deputies, one of the three partners of the ruling coalition, brought this interesting souvenir back from DC: the opportunity of a shift in the geopolitical order in Latinamerica, with Argentina as an ally and watchdog of democracy and stability. But, why would that be? The answer shows up when analyzing the complexity of the current political situation of the Southern Cone countries that have been United States’ allies within the region: Chile is at the forefront of a new Constitution featuring a deep social revolutionary aspect, right on the opposite to President Piñera’s government ideas; President Duque of Colombia has now weakened due to the violent social riots against his attempt to pass a Tax Reform bill; Brazil is going through a very serious economic crisis, hitting its highest levels of unemployment, which appears now to have irreversible effects in the youth: surveys show that almost a 50% of the young brazilian population would flee away due to low expectations in educational and laboural fields; and, last, Peru’s recent one-of-a-kind election which resulted in a vanguard leftist President, Mr Castillo, who in turn will have to struggle with governance issues given the tightness of electoral outcomes. Therefore, given this sensible and unsteady outcome in the region, Argentina comes out as the most stable country in the eyes of the US, in terms of governance and democracy, by having an elected President, a strong partisan system, and a institutional matrix that is rather rigid, acting as a shield to any attempt to stability.

But Sergio Massa isn’t the only one that shows interest in building this partnership. So does Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who, despite her populist profile and her purpose to encourage external relations with US enemies, she is clever enough to understand that Argentina needs this partnership to work. Because it will allow Argentina to achieve a convenient agreement with the IMF, and, also, benefit from the US vaccine diplomacy, by receiving the dosis Argentina still needs to drive a more successful vaccine campaign in order to get to the mid-term elections in more comfortable position than the one that the government is in. There have been some rumours of the possibility of a high level meeting between Cristina Kirchner and her american colleague, VP Kamala Harris. Nothing more than rumours that may have been intentionally released, to, somehow confirm this hypothesis.
It is common knowledge in political science that when state indicators settle down, as mentioned above, the governmental factors start to move; and it does so increasingly when getting closer to the election. President Fernandez’s administration is now showing a more pragmatism attitude to counterbalance the kirchnerista style of government that was adopted in the past months. The withdrawal of the decision of closuring meat exportations as well as its decision to release a part of the payment of the debt to the Paris Club are examples of it. Yet, poll numbers are not performing well for the ruling party, especially in the youth, and middle and lower classes, groups that have been historical supporters of the Kirchner couple and of the Peronist party. Polls are not the only warnings: in two of his public appearances this week in different provinces, Fernandez faced protests. However, the opposition coalition isn’t doing its best to take advantage of the government’s drop, as it is internally debating who their leading candidates should be. The main point of discussion is around Former Governor of Buenos Aires Province, Maria Eugenia Vidal, a public figure that has hit the highest records of positive image in public opinion while in office, which, if running in this election, is tempted to do so at Buenos Aires City Government district, as requested by its Major, Horacio Rodriguez Larreta – a move that Mauricio Macri tends to disapprove. Meanwhile, the other party integrating the coalition, the Union Civica Radical Party, is challenging PRO Party in the province of Buenos Aires, taking doctor Facundo Manes into the lead.
The campaign is officially starting on one month, on July 24th, which means that conversations are to be concluded soon.+)